Draft Population Projections for Anguilla over the period 2002 to 2011

Introduction

Population projections are simply that, projections. They are not forecasts of what the population is expected to be but rather a mechanical model based upon assumptions about birth, death and migration rates. The number of births minus deaths gives the natural rate of increase of the population. Then numbers emigrating is subtracted from numbers immigrating to result in a net migration figure, which is added to the population adjusted for the natural rate of increase. Thus the projections are very sensitive to the assumptions made about migration into and out of Anguilla.

In countries with larger populations than Anguilla, population projections are given for each single year of age broken down by sex and are done for each year. Since Anguilla has no experience with population projections and their use, and given the wide fluctuations in death, birth and migration rates from year to year, these projections are based upon 5-year intervals and 5-year age groups broken down by sex to smooth out fluctuations in birth and death rates.

Births

The number of births that occurs is dependant upon the fertility rate of the population. In turn the overall fertility rate is dependent upon the number of women who are in their child-bearing years. For example, if there is a greater proportion of women in the age groups when women tend to have children, then there is a tendency for the country to have a higher fertility rate. Age specific fertility rates are expressed per 1,000 of women in the specific age group and the child-bearing years are normally considered to be 15 to 44 years.

The chart above shows that women in all age groups, with exception of 25 – 29 year olds have been experiencing slight growth in their fertility rates over the past 8 years. In general, however, they do fluctuate widely due to the small number of births in each age group. Therefore for the purposes of these projections, the average 3 year age fertility rates over the past 3 years have been used to project births over the next 10s.

Fertility rates among teenagers are relatively high and may decline over the next 10 years as family planning programmes are targeted to teenagers. However for the purposes of these projections no change has been assumed over the next ten years.

The following tables shows the number of births by age of mother historically and also the number projected over the ten year period assuming the three year average age specific fertility rates. Note over the period 2002 –6 the total number of births projected is 907 and over the 2007-11 period the number of projected births is 970.

Number of Births by Age of Mother, 1995 to 2002 and projections for 2002-6 and 2007-11

Year	Total	19 & under	20-24	25-29	30-34	35-39	40&over
1995	167	18	50	51	33	12	3
1996	161	23	40	44	33	14	7
1997	169	24	49	54	28	12	2
1998	155	27	29	38	34	20	7
1999	176	29	42	43	35	22	5
2000	193	37	48	42	43	17	6
2001	182	30	56	44	25	20	7
2002	169	23	42	41	40	16	7
		Projections – average births per year
2002-06	182	30	49	42	36	18	7
2007-11	194	36	59	42	32	17	8

Death

Deaths and death rates are dependent upon the age structure of the whole population, not just women. The chart below shows how death rates increase with age and have bee declining slightly in recent years among the older age groups.

For the purposes of these population projections it was decided to use the average death rates over the past 5 years by five year age group to forecast the total deaths. The rates are shown in the table below:

Age groups	Deaths over 5 years 1998-2002			Death Rates over 5 years using 2001 Population
	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total
0 - 4	3	1	4	0.005714	0.001825	0.003728
5 - 9	-	1	1	0	0.002037	0.001007
10 - 14	-	1	1	0	0.001745	0.00088
15 - 19	2	3	5	0.004193	0.00611	0.005165
20 - 24	3	3	6	0.008	0.007264	0.007614
25 - 29	3	3	6	0.006818	0.006928	0.006873
30 - 34	4	2	6	0.008097	0.00396	0.006006
35 - 39	4	1	5	0.00789	0.001876	0.004808
40 - 44	5	1	6	0.011655	0.002212	0.00681
45 - 49	7	2	9	0.019231	0.005714	0.012605
50 - 54	7	3	10	0.029661	0.012931	0.021368
55 - 59	7	5	12	0.042169	0.031847	0.037152
60 - 64	7	7	14	0.048611	0.04375	0.046053
65 - 69	14	9	23	0.08805	0.070866	0.08042
70 - 74	19	13	32	0.231707	0.100775	0.151659
75 - 79	19	22	41	0.292308	0.244444	0.264516
80 - 84	23	29	52	0.442308	0.58	0.509804
85 +	30	50	80	0.625	0.735294	0.689655
Total	157	156	313	0.027896	0.026887	0.027384

Using these death rates, the projected deaths are shown in the table below.

Deaths by Age Group, Actual Figures for 1998 to 2001 and Projections for annual averages for 2002-6 and 2007-11

Age	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002-6	2007-11
0 - 4	1	1	0	0	1	1
5 - 14	0	1	1	0	0	0
15-29	1	3	3	5	4	4
30-44	2	2	6	3	3	4
45-59	4	9	1	8	9	12
60-64	2	1	0	9	3	4
65-69	5	6	7	1	5	5
70-74	7	7	7	8	9	9
75-79	9	8	9	8	11	14
80-84	15	5	14	9	16	19
85+	16	15	21	15	30	28
Total	62	58	69	66	91	102

Migration

Migration is a net figure made up of those immigrating to Anguilla and subtracting the out migrants. There are no figures available for either and they are computed as a residual after subtracting deaths and adding births to the populations available each 10 years from the census. The residual is more or less equally distributed among the inter-censal years. The following table shows the derived net migration from Census years 1992 to 2001.

Net Migration Derived from the Census Population Counts and the Natural Rate of Increase of the Population

1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
256	150	170	53	226	230	178	201	261	301

Immigration is made up of returning Anguillians, who may be returning for work or to retire, foreigners working on work permits and retirees who are few in number. The emigrants are mainly made up of those who are in Anguilla on temporary work permits, those in their late teens or early twenties leaving to study and Anguillians who leave to seek work, these are becoming fewer in number.

After discussions with the Permanent Secretary to the Chief Minister, it was decided to use a flat figure of 200 net migrants per year with half of this number being males in the prime working age group of 25 to 44 years. The remaining 100 migrants were distributed almost equally among the other age and sex groups.

Since the number of net migrants is just under double the natural rate of increase of the projected population (106 per year), immigration policy has a much greater effect upon the population projections than does the natural rate of increase. The distribution of net migrants by age used in the projections is given below:

Assumptions of Net Migration by Age Group, low migration assumption

Age Group	Males	Females	Total
0 - 4	3	3	6
5 - 9	3	3	6
10 - 14	3	3	6
15 - 19	3	3	6
20 - 24	3	3	6
25 - 29	25	4	29
30 - 34	25	4	29
35 - 39	25	4	29
40 - 44	25	4	29
45 - 49	3	3	6
50 - 54	3	3	6
55 - 59	3	3	6
60 - 64	3	3	6
65 - 69	3	3	6
70 - 74	3	3	6
75 - 79	3	3	6
80 - 84	3	3	6
85 +	3	3	6
Total	142	58	200

A second projection was done assuming a net migration of 400 people per year, being evenly distributed between the two sexes and more or less distributed evenly among the age groups with slightly less in the older age groups as follows:

High Migration Assumption

Age Group	Male	Female	Total
0 - 4	75	75	150
5 - 9	75	75	150
10 - 14	75	75	150
15 - 19	75	75	150
20 - 24	75	75	150
25 - 29	75	75	150
30 - 34	79	79	158
35 - 39	78	78	156
40 - 44	78	78	156
45 - 49	75	75	150
50 - 54	75	75	150
55 - 59	75	75	150
60 - 64	15	15	30
65 - 69	15	15	30
70 - 74	15	15	30
75 - 79	15	15	30
80 - 84	15	15	30
85 +	15	15	30
Total	1000	1000	2000

A third migration assumption was made which is called the medium level migration assumption. It is assumed that net migration levels are at 300 per year, evenly distributed throughout the age groups and of both sexes.

Medium Level of Migration

Age Group	Male	Female	Total
0 - 4	42	42	84
5 - 9	42	42	84
10 - 14	42	42	84
15 - 19	42	42	84
20 - 24	42	42	84
25 - 29	42	42	84
30 - 34	42	42	84
35 - 39	42	42	84
40 - 44	42	42	84
45 - 49	42	42	84
50 - 54	42	42	84
55 - 59	42	42	84
60 - 64	41	41	82
65 - 69	41	41	82
70 - 74	41	41	82
75 - 79	41	41	82
80 - 84	41	41	82
85 +	41	41	82
Total	750	750	1500

Population Projections

The low migration assumption population projections show the rate of increase of the population averages 3.1% per year between 1992 and 2001, 2.5% between 2001 and 2006 and then 2.3% between 2006 and 2011. The percentage of the population of school age declines from 28% in 2001 to 22% in 2011. The proportion of prime working stays the same at close to 33% in spite of the net migration assumption which favoured this age group. The largest increase is among those aged 45 to 64 which move from making up 16% of the population to 23% by the end of the projection period of 2011. This is due to the fact that 33% of the present population is at present in the 25 – 44 age group and as they age they will move into the next age group which only represents 16% of the population at present.

The alternative high migration scenario shows an annual average rate of increase going from 2.5% in 1992-2001, then to 4.2% in2001-6 and 3.6% in 2006-11. The distribution of the population shows the age group 45-64 moving from 16% in 2001 to 20% and then 25% by 2011.

Distribution of the Population By Age Group, actual 1992 and 2001 and projections for 2006 to 2011 based upon a low migration and high migration assumptions.

Actual Low migration High Migration Medium Migration

Age groups	1992	2001	2006	2011	2006	2011	2006	2011
0 - 14	2,735	3,202	3,058	3,094	3,418	3,809	3,220	3,412
15 - 24	1,558	1,756	2,151	2,228	2,391	2,707	2,259	2,443
25 - 44	2,766	3,793	4,257	4,625	4,297	4,813	4,013	4,253
45 - 64	1,090	1,809	2,447	3,324	2,807	4,042	2,661	3,634
65+	811	870	971	1,078	971	1,078	1,231	1,493
Total	8,960	11,430	12,884	14,349	13,884	16,449	13,384	15,236
Percentage Distribution by Age Group: Low migration High Migration
Age groups	1992	2001	2006	2011	2006	2011	2006	2011
0 - 14	31%	28%	24%	22%	25%	23%	24%	22%
15 - 24	17%	15%	17%	16%	17%	16%	17%	16%
25 - 44	31%	33%	33%	32%	31%	29%	30%	28%
45 - 64	12%	16%	19%	23%	20%	25%	20%	24%
65+	9%	8%	8%	8%	7%	7%	9%	10%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Growth Rates: Actual Low migration High Migration
age groups	1992	2001	2006	2011	2006	2011	2006		2011
0 - 14		17.1%	-4.5%	1.2%	7%	11%	1%		6%
15 - 24		12.7%	22.5%	3.6%	36%	13%	29%		8%
25 - 44		37.1%	12.2%	8.6%	13%	12%	6%		6%
45 - 64		66.0%	35.3%	35.8%	55%	44%	47%		37%
65+		7.3%	11.6%	11.0%	12%	11%	41%		21%
Total		27.6%	12.7%	11.4%	21%	18%	17%		14%
One Year ave growth		3.1%	2.5%	2.3%	4.2%	3.6%	3.4%		2.8%

Recommendations

In calculating these projections it became clear that there are two areas which require work in order to be able to do more useful projections. They are:

• Clarification of immigration policy to ward not only total numbers but also which age groups will be encouraged or discouraged to come to Anguilla.

• Improved measurement of the arrivals and departures by age and sex.

Actual Population by Five Year Age Groups and Sex, 1992 and 2001

Age groups	1992			2001
	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total
0 - 4	494	492	986	525	548	1,073
5 - 9	463	481	944	502	491	993
10 - 14	404	401	805	563	573	1,136
15 - 19	387	373	760	477	491	968
20 - 24	409	389	798	375	413	788
25 - 29	470	427	897	440	433	873
30 - 34	378	393	771	494	505	999
35 - 39	326	323	649	507	533	1,040
40 - 44	234	215	449	429	452	881
45 - 49	169	147	316	364	350	714
50 - 54	148	146	294	236	232	468
55 - 59	129	127	256	166	157	323
60 - 64	100	124	224	144	160	304
65 - 69	108	121	229	159	127	286
70 - 74	104	112	216	82	129	211
75 - 79	83	101	184	65	90	155
80 - 84	50	58	108	52	50	102
85 +	17	57	74	48	68	116
Total	4,473	4,487	8,960	5,628	5,802	11,430

Population Projections from 2002 to 2006 and 2007 to 2011 by Five Year Age Groups and Sex Assuming Migration of 200 Per Year Concentrated in Prime Working Age Group and Male

Age groups		2006			2011
	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total
0 - 4	466	467	934	499	501	1,000
5 - 9	540	562	1,102	481	481	963
10 - 14	517	505	1,022	555	576	1,131
15 - 19	576	584	1,160	530	517	1,047
20 - 24	488	502	991	586	595	1,181
25 - 29	497	430	928	610	519	1,129
30 - 34	561	451	1,013	618	448	1,067
35 - 39	615	524	1,139	682	470	1,153
40 - 44	626	552	1,178	733	543	1,276
45 - 49	436	464	900	629	564	1,193
50 - 54	368	360	729	438	473	911
55 - 59	241	240	481	368	364	732
60 - 64	173	165	338	244	244	488
65 - 69	146	164	310	173	168	341
70 - 74	137	129	273	127	162	293
75 - 79	73	112	185	112	113	231
80 - 84	51	53	106	56	62	121
85 +	53	46	98	54	41	93
Total	6,565	6,312	12,884	7,496	6,843	14,349

Population Projections from 2002- 2006 and 2007-2011 by Five Year Age Groups and Sex(Migration of 400 Per Year)

		2001-6			2006-11
Age groups	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total
0 - 4	526	527	1,054	617	619	1,236
5 - 9	600	622	1,222	601	601	1,203
10 - 14	577	565	1,142	675	696	1,371
15 - 19	636	644	1,280	650	637	1,286
20 - 24	548	562	1,111	706	715	1,420
25 - 29	447	485	933	619	634	1,253
30 - 34	515	510	1,026	523	562	1,085
35 - 39	568	582	1,150	589	587	1,177
40 - 44	579	610	1,189	639	659	1,298
45 - 49	496	524	1,020	643	681	1,324
50 - 54	428	420	849	556	593	1,148
55 - 59	301	300	601	485	482	967
60 - 64	173	165	338	301	302	603
65 - 69	146	164	310	173	168	341
70 - 74	137	129	273	127	162	293
75 - 79	73	112	185	112	113	231
80 - 84	51	53	106	56	62	121
85 +	53	46	98	54	41	93
Total	6,855	7,022	13,884	8,127	8,313	16,449

Population Projections from 2002- 2006 and 2007-2011 by Five Year Age Groups and Sex(Migration of 300 Per Year)

		2001-6			2006-11
Age groups	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total
0 - 4	493	494	988	550	552	1,102
5 - 9	567	589	1,156	535	535	1,071
10 - 14	544	532	1,076	609	630	1,239
15 - 19	603	611	1,214	584	571	1,155
20 - 24	515	529	1,045	640	649	1,289
25 - 29	414	452	867	554	568	1,121
30 - 34	478	473	952	453	492	945
35 - 39	532	546	1,078	517	514	1,031
40 - 44	543	574	1,117	568	587	1,155
45 - 49	463	491	954	575	613	1,187
50 - 54	395	387	783	491	527	1,018
55 - 59	268	267	535	421	417	838
60 - 64	199	191	390	296	296	592
65 - 69	172	190	362	222	219	441
70 - 74	163	155	325	173	212	389
75 - 79	99	138	237	156	158	321
80 - 84	77	79	158	96	99	198
85 +	79	72	150	80	67	145
Total	6,605	6,772	13,384	7,520	7,706	15,236

Percentage of the Population who is Anguillian

Male

Female

Total

0 - 14

76%

74%

75%

15 - 29

76%

73%

74%

30 - 44

65%

65%

65%

45 +

77%

76%

76%

Total

73%

72%

73%